There are a lot of hot takes already in the air, and I’m sure most will age like forgotten fruit. While I plan to reflect in the coming days and share some of those sorts of reflections with you, I did want to highlight what happened around the country in state elections, which are profoundly impactful and almost always under-reported.
The Biggest Wave Since Nixon Fell Apart
A bit of context: in 2024, Republicans won the national vote for the U.S. House by about 2.6 points. It looks like Democrats won it this year by about 13 points. A 15 point swing hasn’t happened since Gerald Ford was President, half a century ago!
In our polarized, calcified electorate, swings have been incredibly and increasingly unlikely. But MAGA has managed to sow such sorrow and anger that it burst what felt like an unbreakable dam. Now we’re looking at maybe 56 Senators and a nearly 60/40 majority in the House. Dayum!
Governors: Majority for the First Time in 16 Years
Republicans came into Tuesday with 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24.
Dems flipped five—Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Nevada—while the GOP flipped none. Kansas and Alaska are undecided, but betting markets strongly favor both for flips. That means we likely land at 30 Democrats and 20 Republicans.
But that seriously understates the size of the blue majority. There’s a lot more people in blue states. This will mean 75% of Americans living in states with a Democratic governor. On Monday it was only 57%.
61 million more people with Democratic governors.
Some extra fun governors - Keisha Lance Bottoms will be the first Black woman ever elected governor in this country. Gina Hinojosa is the first Democrat to win the Texas governorship in 35 years and the first Latina in that Governor’s mansion ever. Amy Acton beat that asshat former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio.
And for a bit of fun personal trivia—a slightly odd, bald white guy named Jonathan Kriess-Thompkins (called “JKT”), who was introduced to me a couple years ago by a mutual acquaintance who said we reminded him of each other, looks like he may win the Alaska Governor’s race! He’s a moderate, so, you know, whatever, but it is Alaska, after all. In any case, this quirky bit of history and connection gives me a happy little chuckle.
Statehouses: low-key real power
State legislatures are where a ton of the actual governing happens, and some of the most poorly covered or understood. Housing, taxes, transit, voting rules and rights, abortion rights, LGBTQ+ protections, environmental rules, redistricting and SO MUCH MORE.
We got about a dozen flips to the left:
Wisconsin: Assembly AND Senate. First Democratic trifecta since 2010.
Michigan: House
Minnesota: House
Pennsylvania: Senate, first time since 1994.
New Hampshire: House and Senate.
North Carolina: House, the first Democratic majority there since 2010
Arizona: House and Senate (not formally called yet). Would be Dem control for the first time in about 60 years.
Georgia: House likely
Texas: House likely
On top of that, Dems broke GOP supermajorities in places like the Indiana House, the Kansas House, the Ohio House, the South Carolina House, both Missouri chambers, and Florida. That matters a lot, because supermajorities empower legislatures to override governors and steamroll minorities.
Trifectas: Half the Country!
Shifting States
A “trifecta” means one party controls the governor’s office and both legislative chambers. Before Tuesday, Republicans had 23; Democrats had 16.
New Democratic trifectas: Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania (the first since 1993!), and Nevada, plus probably Arizona.
Broken Republican trifectas: Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and New Hampshire.
That puts Democrats at 22 and Republicans at 18!
Now count people instead
But it’s much more dramatic if you count people instead of states. And you should.
On Monday: 39% of Americans lived in a state with a Democratic trifecta, and about 42% lived under GOP rule.
Today it’s roughly 52.5% Democratic and 24% Republican.
60 million people freed themselves from GOP trifectas. And now, more than half the country lives in states with Democratic trifectas. Which means a majority of the country now lives in a state where Democrats have no excuses.
A few other highlights (and lowlights)
Left Coast (mostly up north) Local Happenings
There is so much more to say, of course. In Washington State Supreme Court races, one of the progressive candidates is trailing, but within reach, while the other four are winning. The tax on (only more than) million dollar a year incomes will remain and face the courts. The bill forcing kids out of the closet will not pass.
A few seats in the Washington State legislature flipped to blue as well. I’m particularly delighted to see the back of one guy who played a bit part in making our amazing parking reform/affordability bill not apply to smaller cities. Renters voted in some serious rights in Tacoma, and Seattle and Pierce Transit passed ambitious transit packages. Longtime incumbent Democrat Sharon Tomiko Santos in the 37th (South Seattle) was ousted by a promising young progressive, Kelabe Tewolde. My home district in North and Northeast Seattle voted in supermajorities for the most progressive candidates, and progressive Danica Noble looks like she could take the 32nd in North Seattle/Shoreline over her nice-guy but quite moderate opponent.
Nilu Jenks stomped to victory in the north Seattle’s special election, reducing the barely there dem + moderate dem majority on the city council to a one-vote margin. This likely means more compromises from the swingiest of the more conservative members, and a much greater threat from the Mayor if she weilds her veto. And it portends possible results for next year. Look to Seattle governance to swing toward left pragmatic.
Out of state, Nithya Raman looks likely to turf out the insufferably NIMBY Karen Bass from the LA Mayor’s office. From what I’ve have heard from folks over the last few months, Raman is a lefty-NIMBY dream, a-la Katie Wilson and Zohran Mamdani. I’m so excited about this I could burst.
The biggest disappointments on my radar - the genital-check/trans ban in Washington looks likely to pass. (Civil disobedience, anyone? Time for the courts to strike it down.) The one-time tax on extreme wealth in California also failed.
A personal note
On a happier note, I’m extremely excited to see a younger generation of Senators! Abdul El-Sayed is my personal favorite. Very left, nerdy, earnestly religious, shorts wearing, weightlifting bro-dad. While from a race/gender/wealth standpoint it would be absurd for me to claim any lack of representation—I feel so much more represented by El-Sayed than anyone else in the Senate! Also thrilled to see James Talarico single-handedly remind tens of millions of Americans that the heart of my own religious tradition is the opposite of the shit-filled blasphemy that’s been peddled by MAGA.
Onward friends!
— Ron
PS. Full disclosure - I used an AI tool help me with this research and structuring. It was too much too fast to do on my own, given that I have a job and a busy life. I did a series of fact checks and spot checks and the sentences are all mine. I also think we should go hard on regulating AI labs.
Is Raman YIMBY or NIMBY? You say NIMBY in this article.
After the elation and celebration of last night one downer (sorry) Chuck Schumer says he has the votes to lead the Senate. I hope the Democrats change their mind and understand thiscwasnt just anti Trump but a vote for change.